https://caminodetexas.substack.com/p/ae3

"The greed of ignorance will destroy the wealth accumulated by this generation of Chinese people."

历史和现实不是由单独发生的一个个事件组成的，而是由不同趋势的时段组成的。所以，单独看某年某月某日发生的某个事件，没有多大意义。有意义的是探究某个时段的大致趋势。 History and reality are not composed of individual events that occur separately, but rather of periods characterized by different trends. Therefore, looking at a specific event that occurred on a certain year, month, or day has little significance. What is meaningful is to explore the general trends of a particular period.

过去的成功并不预示未来的成功。 Past success does not guarantee future success.

近十年，美国政客和媒体越来越频繁地使用“existential threat”（"生死存亡的威胁"）讲中美关系，中国的宣传早就把美国当成头号国际敌人。了解一点政治哲学术语和欧美历史的话，会知道这个词在美国语境中意味着什么。 In the past decade, American politicians and media have increasingly used the term "existential threat" to describe the relationship between China and the United States. China's propaganda has long portrayed the United States as its number one international enemy. If one has some understanding of political philosophy terminology and the history of Europe and America, they would know what this term means in the American context.

这种强烈的价值认同，像梅达尔说的“粘合剂”，把美国不同种族、不同阶层、贫富悬殊的人群结合成一个国家，就会理解，为什么美国民间越来越把近十年的中国当成existential threat, 不只是经济方面 — — 美国从跟中国的贸易获得巨大利益，更重要的是价值方面，那种全面控制社会、全面控制人的意识形态对美国价值形成巨大威胁。 This strong sense of value identification, like what Mead said as a "binding agent," binds together people of different races, social classes, and economic disparities in the United States into one nation. It helps us understand why the American public increasingly sees China as an existential threat in the past decade, not just in terms of the economy. The United States has gained significant benefits from trade with China, but more importantly, the comprehensive control of society and individuals' ideology poses a huge threat to American values.

过去四十年，中国在经济上的巨大成功让很多人相信经济增长是理所当然的“常态”。但看一下历史，这个想像的“常态”之前是另一个“常态”，那个“常态”的特征之一就是把官僚系统当成一架绞肉机，并扩大到经济、文化、教育等社会这个领域。 In the past forty years, China's tremendous economic success has led many people to believe that economic growth is a natural "norm." However, looking at history, this imagined "norm" was preceded by another "norm," characterized by the bureaucratic system being treated as a meat grinder and expanding into various social domains such as the economy, culture, and education.

但这些年，中国显然意识到这些条件中的一些正在威胁权力的稳固，正在全力剿灭那些他们认为是威胁的条件。全面控制，包括恢复官僚系统的绞肉机功能。 But in recent years, China has obviously realized that some of these conditions are threatening the stability of power, and they are making every effort to eliminate those they perceive as threats. This includes gaining complete control, including the restoration of the bureaucratic system's machinery of oppression.

一个常识性问题：世界上有哪一个经济体，全面控制、武断决策的条件下，经济能持续强劲发展？ A common-sense question: Which economy in the world can sustain strong and continuous development under comprehensive control and arbitrary decision-making conditions?

有人对“北京共识”总结出五条：一是渐进改革，二是实验创新，三是出口拉动增长，四是国家资本主义，五是威权政治。这大致是以倡导自由市场资本主义的所谓“华盛顿共识”的对立面。 Someone has summarized the "Beijing Consensus" into five points: gradual reform, experimental innovation, export-driven growth, state capitalism, and authoritarian politics. This is roughly the opposite of the so-called "Washington Consensus" that advocates for free-market capitalism.

国内的教育是个阉割常识的过程，加上社会氛围刺激人性中的贪婪，让很多心智并不太低的国人养成一种“缺少常识的贪婪”性格。一个简单的例子，李嘉诚大面积撤资的时候，很多人还在中国房子上押宝下注，而且嘲笑李错过了国内后面几次不动产涨价的机会。 Domestic education is a process that castrates common sense, coupled with a social atmosphere that stimulates greed in human nature, causing many intellectually capable Chinese people to develop a character of "greed without common sense." A simple example is when Li Ka-shing withdrew a large amount of investment, many people were still betting on Chinese real estate and even mocked Li for missing several opportunities for property price increases in China.